GLOBAL DAIRY FWD PRICE ASSESSMENT – April 24th, 2022

OBSERVATION

COMMENTARY

  • Emerging narratives
    • We are in World War III
    • China lockdowns will lead to significant slowdown in commodity import demand
    • There is NO analogue to current times. 
      • We had a global pandemic and widespread lockdown which halted the global economy for a year
      • Followed by a “never experienced before” supply chain disruption which upset global goods flows
      • And now a 19th century style kinetic conflict in the forefront and a deep sea and high space cold war behind the scenes
    • Our Take: We have demonstrated utmost resilience in making it through all this. Despite political distancing, intelligence and decision making is connected and monetizes efficiencies driven by advances in skills and technology.
  • Dairy: Perishable commodities will get converted to commodities that will enable those commodities to be stored and handled with least logistics resistance. These commodities may be different from those that may be in the highest demand, constraint by availability of materials and logistics.
    Global forward price assessment has shown a slight ease for both Butter and Solids non fat
    Is this a sign that global markets have reversed course?

Author Gaetano Piermarocchi

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